Australia’s ageing population set to increase pressure on healthcare
21 Sep 2026
The findings come from the Australian Government’s 2026 Intergenerational Report, released on 21 September. The report looks at Australia’s economic and social outlook through to 2065–66 and identifies ageing and artificial intelligence among the major changes expected to shape the country’s future.
The report projects that Australia’s fertility rate will fall to 1.34 children per woman by 2065–66. It also forecasts that the number of Australians aged 85 and over will almost triple, increasing from about 625,000 today to 1.9 million.
Deaths are also projected to outnumber births for the first time in the 2060s. Despite this, the population is expected to continue growing, reaching about 39.3 million by 2065–66, supported largely by migration.
Treasury said the ageing population and increasing prevalence of chronic conditions will create greater demand for healthcare and aged care.
The report highlights the importance of prevention, early detection and reducing modifiable risk factors to help manage the long-term impact of chronic disease.
RACGP President Dr Michael Wright said the changes reflected what many GPs were already seeing in general practice, with patients living longer while also spending more years managing chronic health conditions.
He said greater support for general practice would be important as the demand for complex care increases.
Artificial intelligence is another major change identified in the report. Treasury said advances in AI and digital technologies could improve productivity, support health monitoring and disease management, and reduce some administrative pressures across healthcare and aged care.
Dr Wright said AI had significant potential in healthcare, but expert general practice would continue to play an important role in patient care.
The report also points to differences between metropolitan and regional Australia. Regional communities are expected to age faster, creating additional challenges for access to healthcare and aged care services.
By 2065–66, the median age outside capital cities is projected to be higher than in metropolitan areas, increasing the need for healthcare services and workers in regional communities.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers said Australians were expected to live longer and healthier lives over the coming decades, while acknowledging that the country would face significant economic and social changes.
The 2026 Intergenerational Report identifies artificial intelligence, population ageing, the energy transition, geopolitical change and industrial transformation as major forces expected to shape Australia over the next 40 years.
Australia’s ageing population set to increase pressure on healthcare
Source: Australian Government Treasury, 2026 Intergenerational Report; RACGP.