Updated CVD tool changes heart risk estimates across Australia
20 Oct 2026
Researchers from the Australian National University (ANU) say the results could help GPs identify patients who may benefit from preventive treatment and discuss ways to lower their risk of heart disease and stroke.
Published in the Medical Journal of Australia, the study examined health data from 115,873 people aged 45–74 who visited a GP between September 2020 and August 2022. None had a previous history of heart disease or stroke.
The researchers compared risk estimates from Australia's updated CVD calculator, introduced in 2023, with those produced by the earlier tool published in 2012.
Using the updated calculator, 9.7% of participants were classified as being at high risk of a cardiovascular event within five years, compared with 17.6% under the previous tool. Preventive medication is routinely recommended for people in the high-risk group.
The proportion classified as intermediate risk rose from 11.6% with the older calculator to 26.4% with the updated version. For this group, treatment may be considered based on each person's circumstances.
Melbourne GP and researcher Associate Professor Ralph Audehm told newsGP that the older calculator could overestimate CVD risk because it relied on older US Framingham data.
The updated tool uses a risk model developed from contemporary data involving more than 400,000 people in New Zealand, adjusted for the Australian population. It also includes a separate equation for people with diabetes, allowing their risk to be assessed more appropriately.
Associate Professor Audehm said the revised tool better accounts for diabetes as a risk factor for cardiovascular disease.
However, he cautioned that people moved from the high-risk group to the intermediate-risk group still face a risk of cardiovascular events. The older calculator was also known to underestimate risk among Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander peoples.
Study co-author Dr Ellie Paige said the findings could support better care by prompting more Australians in the intermediate-risk group to discuss treatment options with their GP.
Associate Professor Audehm said risk calculators provide a useful starting point, but GPs must also consider the patient's overall health and circumstances. Factors such as chronic kidney disease, family history and other health risks may influence an individual's assessment.
He said GPs would need to use clinical judgement when assessing the larger intermediate-risk group and consider whether additional factors could place some patients at higher risk.
Associate Professor Audehm also highlighted the value of heart health checks in identifying people at high risk who may not be receiving appropriate treatment. These checks can help GPs assess cardiovascular risk and discuss suitable management with their patients.
Updated CVD tool changes heart risk estimates across Australia
Source: Medical Journal of Australia — study on updated cardiovascular disease risk assessment.