Australia Faces Growing Shortage of Specialist Doctors by 2048
23 Jun 2026
According to a report released by the Department of Health, Disability and Ageing, the country may be short by around 12,812 full-time specialist doctors by 2048. The analysis is part of its Whole of Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Compendium Report.
The data shows a projected shortfall of about 6,981 specialists by 2033, increasing to 12,812 by 2048, equal to nearly a 9.7% gap in required workforce levels.
While the total number of doctors in Australia is expected to reach around 200,000 by 2048, the report suggests this may still not meet demand in specialist areas.
The modelling does not provide detailed breakdowns by specialty, meaning the exact impact on general practice is unclear. However, earlier workforce planning by the Royal Australian College of General Practitioners estimated a current shortage of around 3,620 full-time GPs, with expectations that this gap could increase without action.
The college has previously called for an increase in GP training places, recommending a rise from 1,350 to at least 1,850 training positions annually over the next five years to help address future demand.
A record 1,772 doctors entered GP training this year, supported by a $751.3 million five-year funding agreement between the Federal Government and the college.
The government report also warns that unequal access to care is likely to continue due to workforce shortages and uneven distribution of specialists across regions.
Health leaders have highlighted that simply increasing doctor numbers is not enough, pointing to ongoing issues with training pathways, retention, and geographic imbalance in the workforce.
The report notes that Australia’s reliance on international medical graduates has increased over time, rising from 21% to 34% of the workforce between 2003 and 2023.
It also warns that current workforce planning may not be sufficient to resolve long-term shortages, with structural issues in training and career pathways continuing to limit supply.
Australia Faces Growing Shortage of Specialist Doctors by 2048
Source: Department of Health, Disability and Ageing (Australia), Whole of Medical Workforce Supply and Demand Compendium Report